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| Cheaper Fares: Will they lead to more scenes like this? |
No sooner had the Bus Users' Group reported that the government was making no progress on its promised move to cap bus fares at a maximum of £2 per journey than the Department for Transport announced it would be introduced early next year.
Rather than having been embarrassed by our comments, it appears that the announcement has been timed to divert attention from the introduction of fare caps in Manchester and West Yorkshire (both of which have Labour Mayors) from next week. It's clear from what has been released so far that the scheme is far from complete and has certainly not been agreed by the whole bus industry, leaving more work to be done between now and the planned introduction date in January.
Not Like Manchester
Even the official DfT press release is short on detail. It states only that the £2 cap will apply to "adult single fares", with no mention of child or young persons' tickets that are normally sold at a discounted rate. Taken literally this could mean that a child fare at full rate could actually be more expensive than the £2 adult fare, although this is unlikely to happen.
The reduced fares will apply from "January to March 2023" and the scheme differs from those in Manchester and West Yorkshire in two significant ways.
- It is temporary
It is time-limited for just three months, unlike those in Manchester and West Yorkshire, which are intended to be permanent, at least whilst the funding lasts.
- It applies to single tickets only
The cap applies only to single fares. In Manchester and West Yorkshire there will also be a £5 cap (£4.50 in Yorkshire) on a full day's travel irrespective of how many journeys are made or how many different operator's buses are used. The situation on child and young persons' fares is unclear.
Time to Build
Experience elsewhere has shown that initiatives on reduced fares or enhanced services take time to bed in and it can be quite a while before the public becomes aware of them and even longer before they change their travel habits.
In 2017, following a sustained campaign by the Bus Users Group, service 18 in Lancaster was enhanced from five buses a day to a half-hourly service. Usage rose quickly from an average of 14 passengers a day to 83, although the average number of passengers per journey rose only by 33%
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| Service 18 showed that it can take longer than three months to build patronage. |
Twelve months later there was an average of 111 passengers per day, but it took almost another year - and two years from the time the new timetable was introduced - for ridership to peak at 166 per day.
A three-month experiment on fares capping may therefore not be enough to show the full potential of the scheme. The DfT, however, has also said that it will "consider future support to help passengers continue accessing reliable and affordable bus services after March". Given that the experiment is due to take place in the middle of winter, when the potential for attracting new passengers is at its lowest, we sincerely hope that this is the case.
No Daily Cap
The absence of a daily cap on fares, such as is being introduced in Manchester and West Yorkshire is a serious flaw in the scheme. Locally, both our operators offer a Day Ticket on their services, but the tickets are not interchangeable. The Bus Users Group is aware of passengers who buy a daily or weekly ticket from one operator but then still have to pay extra if they use the other company's buses. A £5 cap across the whole network would benefit them.
Who Will Benefit?
Perhaps we should start by saying who won't.
Anyone who currently pays less than £2 for a single journey, such as those travelling from Marsh, Ridge or Bowerham into the city centre will not gain from the scheme.
Similarly those who currently buy a return ticket at £3.90 or less, such as between the City Centre and Lancaster University or Bare and Morecambe, will see no advantage.
Regular travellers who currently buy weekly or longer period Mega Riders will also find it cheaper to continue doing so rather than paying 2 x £2 per day, as can passengers who take advantage of Stagecoach's Flexi-Tickets that can reduce the cost of a day's travel across the Bay DayRider area to as little as £3.50, or 50p less than two journeys with a capped fare.
But surely someone must!
Obviously, anyone who currently pays more than £2 for a journey that they make in only one direction each day (perhaps getting a lift home?) will be in pocket - and the farther they travel the greater the saving.
Similarly, anyone who pays more than £4 for a return ticket and is unable to take advantage of the Flexi Day Rider Tickets, which can only be bought through the Stagecoach app, will stand to gain.
Interestingly, the DfT's press release says that on average a three-mile bus journey in England costs "over £2.80" and that passengers will therefore save 30% under the cap. Research by the BUG on a selection of local journeys showed that our passengers currently pay £3.60 for a three-mile ride, making the saving 44% although neither figure takes return or day tickets into account.
The greatest beneficiaries will be those who travel the farthest. A trip to Kendal, Keswick, Blackpool, Skipton or Preston for just £2 (plus £2 to get back) is an attractive offer and should encourage new riders as well as helping existing ones.
Who's Paying?
If fares are being reduced, then bus company revenues will also fall as passengers who previously paid £3, £6 or even £12 for a journey pay just £2. Although the reductions should mean extra passengers travelling, it is unlikely, especially in the middle of winter, than enough extra journeys will be generated to make good the shortfall.
The government has therefore set aside £60m to compensate bus operators for participating in the scheme. This might not seem a lot to cover the whole of England, but with the schemes in Manchester, West Yorkshire and Liverpool (set to follow from mid-September) being funded separately and bus fares in London set at a flat rate of £1.65 per journey already and therefore not affected, it has to cover a smaller number of journeys than it seems at first sight.
It's clear from the government's announcement that the actual details of how operators will be reimbursed are still being worked out and that full agreement with the industry has not yet been reached. So far, the government says that the scheme will apply to "almost every" bus and that bus operators providing "over 90%" of services support the scheme, participation in which will be voluntary. It is, however, difficult to see how any individual operator could opt-out in practice, given the publicity the scheme will no doubt receive.
The Bus Users' Group welcomes the initiative, despite its flaws, and hopes that it will continue and will be enhanced to make it of benefit to even more passengers, both existing and new.